Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Indexes (CRLPI)
Updated to the Second Quarter of 2016 (2016q2)
National University of Singapore
The Wharton School
University of Pennsylvania
The Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Indexes (CRLPI) reports series of real constant quality land prices across 35 major markets in China. See our white paper below for more information on the underlying data and technical issues involved in the creation of the index.
Figure 1’s plot of the aggregate index of the 35 cities shows that real appreciation in Chinese land prices rebounded sharply in the second quarter of 2016, increasing by 28%. This surge follows a weak first quarter which saw the index drop by about 2%, and represents a new, all-time high for our land price index. Since the first quarter of 2004 when our index begins, real land prices have growth by 575%, which implies an annualized compounded quarterly rate of growth of 17.25%
It is noteworthy that this sharp increase in land values was not accompanied by increasing transactions volumes. Land parcel sales in our 35 large markets were down 14% from the previous quarter, as depicted in Figure 2. Private developers’ purchases of land for future residential buildings remains at relatively low levels associated with 2014-2015 activity.
The end of the second quarter allows us to update our semi-annual regional price indexes. Figure 3 plots index values for the East, Middle and West regions of China. Real land prices increased on average in all parts of China, but the increase was quite modest in the West region (+5%). Cities in the East region experienced a much larger 24% real growth rate, with those in the Middle region escalating by about 16%.
Because we only report annual index changes for individual cities, there are no changes to the values through 2015 for the ten large cities in Figure 4. Those will be updated at the end of the year.
|Table 1: National Price Index Growth (35 City Aggregate)
|Compound Quarterly Growth Rate||3.89%|
|Annualized Compound Quarterly Rate||17.25%|
|Table 2: Regional Price Index Growth
25 half years
|Compound Semi-Annually Growth Rate||7.30%||7.63%||5.76%|
|Annualized Compound Semi-Annually Rate||15.81%||16.54%||12.38%|
|Table 3: City Price Index Growth|
|Compound Annual Growth Rate||24.1%||11.4%||15.1%||13.2%||17.1%||14.9%||9.4%||20.9%||14.1%||7.9%|
Note: The Compound Quarterly Growth Rate (CQGR) is calculated by the formula CQGR(Ta,Tb)=(V(Tb)/V(Ta))^(1/Tb-Ta)-1 where V (Ta) is the starting value, V (Tb) is the finishing value, and Tb-Ta is the number of quarters, with Ta=1 by definition.
Download Paper: The Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Indexes (CRLPI)
Download Data File: Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Indexes Data
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