Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Indexes (CRLPI)
Updated to the 4th Quarter of 2015
National University of Singapore
The Wharton School
University of Pennsylvania
The Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Indexes (CRLPI) reports series on real constant quality land prices across 35 major markets in China. See our white paper below for more information on the underlying data and technical issues in the creation of the index.
Figure 1’s plot of the aggregate index of the 35 cities shows that real appreciation in Chinese land markets rebounded sharply in the fourth quarter of 2015, increasing by 16.9%. This surge follows a weak third quarter which saw the index drop by -2.5%. The series also experienced a 9.4% decline in the first quarter of 2015, but this most recent increase takes the 35-city aggregate index past its previous peak. Since 2014(4), real land prices grew by 20.2% across these 35 cities. Over the full eleven years of the index, Table 1 below shows it has appreciated by 447%, for a 15.6% annual compound rate of real growth.
Transactions volumes also rose substantially across these relatively large cities, as Figure 2 documents. Land parcel sales increased by almost 40% compared to the previous quarter and by 48% compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. The last time land parcel sales were this high for this group of markets was the fourth quarter of 2013.
Figure 3 depicts updated semi-annual price indexes for the three regions of China. Cities in the East region saw real price growth of 11%, those in Middle region grew by 12%, while those in the West region saw the largest appreciation of about 17%. Thus, the aggregate index is not being driven by a concentrated set of cities in one region. Table 2 shows that overall land price growth since index inception in 2004 has been highest in the Middle region, followed by the East and West regions, respectively.
Figure 4 then plots city-level real land price index values for 10 large cities. There is notable variation across cities in these plots (and in the city-specific summary statistics reported in Table 3). First, the extraordinary boom in Beijing land prices did not continue in 2015. In fact, real prices there declined by a modest -4.1%. Most other big East region cities such as Hangzhou, Shanghai and Guangzhou saw continued price growth. Shanghai prices appreciated by just over 23% in 2015. Wuhan and Nanjing also experienced strong real price growth in 2015, with Chengdu and Xian having more modest increases. In contrast, Chongqing prices declined modestly in real terms for the second year in a row.
|Table 1: National Price Index Growth (35 City Aggregate)
|Compound Quarterly Growth Rate||3.7%|
|Annualized Compound Quarterly Rate||15.6%|
|Table 2: Regional Price Index Growth
24 half years
|Compound Semi-Annually Growth Rate||6.7%||7.4%||5.8%|
|Annualized Compound Semi-Annually Rate||13.9%||15.4%||11.9%|
|Table 3: City Price Index Growth|
|Compound Annual Growth Rate||24.1%||11.4%||15.1%||13.2%||17.1%||14.9%||9.4%||20.9%||14.1%||7.9%|
Note: The Compound Quarterly Growth Rate (CQGR) is calculated by the formula CQGR(Ta,Tb)=(V(Tb)/V(Ta))^(1/Tb-Ta)-1 where V (Ta) is the starting value, V (Tb) is the finishing value, and Tb-Ta is the number of quarters, with Ta=1 by definition.
Download Paper: The Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Indexes (CRLPI)
Download Data File: Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Indexes Data
Any publication using the Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Index Data should include the following citation reference: