Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Indexes (CRLPI)
Updated to the Second Quarter of 2016 (2016q2)

Yongheng Deng
National University of Singapore
Jing Wu
Tsinghua University
Joseph Gyourko
The Wharton School
University of Pennsylvania

The Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Indexes (CRLPI) reports series of real constant quality land prices across 35 major markets in China. See our white paper below for more information on the underlying data and technical issues involved in the creation of the index.

Figure 1’s plot of the aggregate index of the 35 cities shows that real appreciation in Chinese land prices rebounded sharply in the second quarter of 2016, increasing by 28%. This surge follows a weak first quarter which saw the index drop by about 2%, and represents a new, all-time high for our land price index. Since the first quarter of 2004 when our index begins, real land prices have growth by 575%, which implies an annualized compounded quarterly rate of growth of 17.25%

It is noteworthy that this sharp increase in land values was not accompanied by increasing transactions volumes. Land parcel sales in our 35 large markets were down 14% from the previous quarter, as depicted in Figure 2. Private developers’ purchases of land for future residential buildings remains at relatively low levels associated with 2014-2015 activity.

The end of the second quarter allows us to update our semi-annual regional price indexes. Figure 3 plots index values for the East, Middle and West regions of China. Real land prices increased on average in all parts of China, but the increase was quite modest in the West region (+5%). Cities in the East region experienced a much larger 24% real growth rate, with those in the Middle region escalating by about 16%.

Because we only report annual index changes for individual cities, there are no changes to the values through 2015 for the ten large cities in Figure 4. Those will be updated at the end of the year.


Figure 1: Chinese National Real Land Price Index
35 Markets, Constant Quality Series
(Quarterly: 2004q1 – 2016q2)

 


Figure 2: Number of Parcels Sold
35 Markets (Quarterly: 2003q1 – 2016q2)

 


Figure 3: Chinese Regional Real Land Price Index
East, Middle and West Regions, Constant Quality Series
(Semi-annually: 2004h1 – 2016h1

 


Figure 4: City-Level Real Land Price Index, Twelve Cities, Constant Quality Series
(Annually: 2004-2015)

Table 1: National Price Index Growth (35 City Aggregate)
2004(1)-2016(2)
50 quarters
Total Appreciation 575%
Compound Quarterly Growth Rate 3.89%
Annualized Compound Quarterly Rate 17.25%

Table 2: Regional Price Index Growth
2004h1-2016h1
25 half years
East Middle West
Total Appreciation 482% 528% 306%
Compound Semi-Annually Growth Rate 7.30% 7.63% 5.76%
Annualized Compound Semi-Annually Rate 15.81% 16.54% 12.38%

Table 3: City Price Index Growth
2004-2015
12 years
2006-2015
10 years
2007-2015
9 years
Beijing Chengdu Chongqing Hangzhou Nanjing Tianjin Wuhan Shanghai Guangzhou Xian
Total Appreciation 973% 229% 371% 290% 468% 360% 167% 450% 187% 83%
Compound Annual Growth Rate 24.1% 11.4% 15.1% 13.2% 17.1% 14.9% 9.4% 20.9% 14.1% 7.9%

Note: The Compound Quarterly Growth Rate (CQGR) is calculated by the formula CQGR(Ta,Tb)=(V(Tb)/V(Ta))^(1/Tb-Ta)-1 where V (Ta) is the starting value, V (Tb) is the finishing value, and Tb-Ta is the number of quarters, with Ta=1 by definition.

Download Paper: The Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Indexes (CRLPI)
Download Data File: Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Indexes Data

Any publication using the Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Index Data should include the following citation reference:

Wu, Jing, Joseph Gyourko and Yongheng Deng (2012) "Evaluating Conditions in Major Chinese Housing Markets", Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 42, no.2: 531-545