Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Indexes (CRLPI)
Updated to the Second Quarter of 2017 (2017q2)

Yongheng Deng
National University of Singapore
Jing Wu
Tsinghua University
Joseph Gyourko
The Wharton School
University of Pennsylvania

The Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Indexes (CRLPI) reports series of real constant quality land prices across 35 major markets in China. See our white paper below for more information on the underlying data and technical issues involved in the creation of the index.

Figure 1’s plot of the aggregate index of the 35 cities shows that Chinese land markets continue to rebound following a modest downturn in the latter part of 2016. Real land prices in the second quarter of 2017 rose by nearly 8%, leaving them 24% above their end of 2016 values. Land price appreciation is occurring amidst tepid transactions volume. Figure 2 documents that residential land parcel sales in our 35 major cities have fallen below their previous troughs in the second quarters of 2014 and 2015. Last quarter’s trading volume was lower than since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009(2).

The conclusion of the second quarter allows us to update our regional price indexes. Figure 3 shows that the cities in the East region continue to far outpace the rest of the country. East region cities grew by a hefty 44.5% in the first half of 2017, continuing their sharp price appreciation. What is new this quarter is the weakening land price growth in the Middle region cities. Following robust real price appreciation of 14% in the second half of 2016, the first half of 2017 saw real price decline modestly by about -4%. Cities in the West region continue to exhibit relative weak real price growth.

We report land price indexes for a dozen large cities on an annual basis. Those indexes will be updated at the end of the year.


Figure 1: Chinese National Real Land Price Index
35 Markets, Constant Quality Series
(Quarterly: 2004q1 – 2017q2)

 


Figure 2: Number of Parcels Sold
35 Markets (Quarterly: 2003q1 – 2017q2)

 


Figure 3: Chinese Regional Real Land Price Index
East, Middle and West Regions, Constant Quality Series
(Semi-annually: 2004h1 – 2017h1)

 


Figure 4: City-Level Real Land Price Index, Twelve Cities, Constant Quality Series
(Annually: 2004-2016)

Table 1: National Price Index Growth (35 City Aggregate)
2004(1)-2017(2)
54 quarters
Total Appreciation 688%
Compound Quarterly Growth Rate 3.97%
Annualized Compound Quarterly Rate 16.86%

Table 2: Regional Price Index Growth
2004h1-2017h1
27 half years
East Middle West
Total Appreciation 870% 628% 325%
Compound Semi-Annually Growth Rate 9.13% 7.93% 5.72%
Annualized Compound Semi-Annually Rate 19.10% 16.50% 11.77%

Table 3: City Price Index Growth
2004-2016
13 years
2006-2016
11 years
2007-2016
10 years
Beijing Changsha Chengdu Chongqing Dalian Hangzhou Nanjing Tianjin Wuhan Shanghai Guangzhou Xian
Total Appreciation 1538% 264% 284% 452% 97% 468% 924% 829% 387% 878% 335% 80%
Compound Annual Growth Rate 26.24% 11.36% 11.88% 15.31% 5.81% 15.57% 21.39% 20.41% 14.10% 25.62% 17.74% 6.77%

Note: The Compound Quarterly Growth Rate (CQGR) is calculated by the formula CQGR(Ta,Tb)=(V(Tb)/V(Ta))^(1/Tb-Ta)-1 where V (Ta) is the starting value, V (Tb) is the finishing value, and Tb-Ta is the number of quarters, with Ta=1 by definition.

Download Paper: The Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Indexes (CRLPI)
Download Data File: Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Indexes Data

Any publication using the Wharton/NUS/Tsinghua Chinese Residential Land Price Index Data should include the following citation reference:

Wu, Jing, Joseph Gyourko and Yongheng Deng (2012) "Evaluating Conditions in Major Chinese Housing Markets", Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 42, no.2: 531-545